Modelling and Estimating Modal Share in European Transport: a Comparative Analysis Using Interregional Freight Flow Data

International and interregional trade and transport are on the rise and hence, there is a clear need for reliable estimates of transport flows. However, the available databases and estimation methods are not yet satisfactory for analytical and predictive purposes. In this paper we explore the use of different statistical techniques in order to examine the spatial flow pattern of freight transport among competing transport modes. Freight transport has specific peculiarities that are different from passenger transport. We argue that a logit model, the most commonly used technique in the empirical analysis of passenger flows, is not always appropriate for the analysis of freight flows, unless the interdependence between the decision making regarding the shipment of individual units of freight belonging to the same shipment is correctly modelled. In the paper, we will focus on the analysis of aggregate freight transport flows of the type that may be generated from conventional spatial interaction models. In particular, adjusted estimation techniques alternative to the logit model will be employed to analyze the transport flows of two products, chemical products and foodstuffs, based on an European interregional data set. We will conclude the paper by discussing various caveats encountered during the empirical analysis.